With just 12 (and a half) rounds of fixtures remaining in this season’s Premier League, we already have a rough idea of how the table will look when the curtain comes down in May.
However, there is still so much to decide.
The destination of the title itself looks fairly certain to be Stamford Bridge – with Sky Sports giving Chelsea a 90% probability of being champions – but the rest of the top four is anybody’s guess.
The Sky Sports Premier Predictor is responsible for the table above. The calculations are based on an algorithm which ranks results, previous performances and the difficulty of upcoming fixtures.
According to the Premier Predictor, Tottenham are the biggest threat to Chelsea’s crown, but only stand a 4/100 chance of ending the season on top.
Meanwhile, after losing at Leicester on Monday night, Liverpool are now the outsiders in the battle for Champions League qualification.
Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have just a 32% chance of making the top four, while Premier Predictor maths suggest sixth place with 67 points is likely to be their final resting place.
The Premier Predictor also has data on this weekend’s matches, which could be used for betting info. For example, Stoke are evens to beat Middlesbrough at home, but the Potters only have a 45% shot of winning, therefore they are a bad bet.
We are all too familiar with unsuccessful gambling here at CaughtOffside and are therefore collectively giving up accumulators for lent – although Ron Carne can still be found on Casumo spinning religiously like Pete Burns in his prime.
Just because we aren’t betting anymore, that doesn’t mean we’re exiting the predictions game.
Check out my personal tips below.
Leicester 1-2 Hull
The Foxes were bang up for Monday night’s televised tussle against Liverpool, which they deservedly won 3-1.
However, Liverpool lost this game because they didn’t fancy a battle – Hull will.
Furthermore, I simply can’t see Leicester maintaining Monday’s intensity. It looked like a one-off – a direct response to the media scrutiny.
Liverpool 3-3 Arsenal
Goals, goals, goals! We have witnessed 13 in the last two games between these sides.
Liverpool raise their game against better opposition, but they are simply awful at the back.
Manchester United 3-0 Bournemouth
Home banker. The Reds Devils are on a six-game winning streak.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is in unstoppable form, scoring seven goals in those six games. I simply cannot see Bournemouth competing at Old Trafford.
Stoke 1-1 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough need the points more than Stoke, but Potters manager Mark Hughes will be expecting a big response, after seeing his side torn apart at Tottenham last weekend.
It won’t be pretty, but I think both teams will take a point.
Sunderland 1-3 Man City
Pep Guardiola’s first taste of English football was a hard-fought win over Sunderland on the opening day.
City will again need to graft, against a side who have taken points off Liverpool and Tottenham at the Stadium of Light this year.
If they match the Black Cats for effort, City’s superior quality will eventually tell.
Swansea 2-0 Burnley
With no away wins all season, Burnley will travel to South Wales low on confidence.
Conversely, Swansea should be in good spirits.
The Swans have won their last two home games and have only been beaten by the Premier League’s big boys in 2017, losing to Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal, beating Liverpool in between.
Tottenham 2-1 Everton
Spurs were brilliant in the first 45 minutes against Stoke last weekend, blowing them away with four goals.
Indeed, Tottenham have been superb at White Hart Lane all season, winning 11 and drawing two of their 13 league matches.
Everton are capable of ending that unbeaten run, especially with fitness concerns over defenders Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld.
I fancy Spurs to scrape another three points, though.
Watford 1-3 Southampton
This game, along with Liverpool vs Arsenal, is probably the toughest to call.
Southampton had their hearts broken in the EFL Cup final last Sunday and, for me, this match is all about them.
Play like they did at Wembley and the Saints will march out of Watford with three points, but they will surely be punished if they feel sorry for themselves.
West Brom 2-1 Crystal Palace
Tony Pulis has done a great job with West Brom this season and the overachieving Baggies have been one of the most consistent teams in the Prem.
West Brom’s level won’t dip, so Palace will have to play well, which is a big ask!
West Ham 1-1 Chelsea
The Hammers beat Chelsea in Stratford earlier this season and – although it was in the EFL Cup and the Blues rested a few key men – Slaven Bilic’s men will gain a lot of belief from that match.
Chelsea have been held in each of their last two PL away games – at Liverpool and Burnley – and I fancy another two points to be dropped on Monday night.