Arsenal really want Moises Caicedo but have alternatives in mind too
Arsenal really want Moises Caicedo and they’d love to get something done before the end of the window, and they’ve been relatively aggressive with their approach. They’ve made two bids, the first of which I think they knew would get rejected. But they were intent on making a second offer for a package worth £70m made up of £65m guaranteed and £5m in add-ons, even though they had been informed earlier in on Sunday, categorically and robustly by Brighton, that Caicedo was not for sale. Arsenal still decided to try, and they’re still hoping, along with Caicedo and his new agents, that something dramatic could happen.
Still, Arsenal are now in a tricky position – two bids in, they know now that Brighton’s stance that Caicedo is not for sale is genuine, and second of all, they have to think about their own discipline. It’s intriguing, because this deal is very un-Arsenal-like in many ways, especially on the back of their failed pursuit of Mykhaylo Mudryk, where they were meticulous and held out for their own terms, and even when Chelsea entered the race they didn’t go past what they thought was fair market value. Now suddenly with Caicedo, Arsenal are bidding quick, and bidding high. Their second offer was an incredible package, but Brighton are under no obligation to sell. Obviously it’s also late in the window, so Arsenal have to bid above market value, and even think about an astronomical offer, because the only way they’re going to get Caicedo otherwise Brighton’s mind stands no chance of being changed.
Of course, Arsenal will point to the fact that Caicedo’s agents are active, they will use his public statement as well, because everything on the player’s side points towards him wanting to leave the club. And you can see why that would be the case – he’d get the chance to increase his wages at a club like Arsenal, and he could even be Premier League winner within a matter of months. It makes sense that Caicedo, whether directly, or on the advice of his agents, is taking that line. Arsenal will also be encouraged by Roberto De Zerbi’s comments following the win over Liverpool in the FA Cup, because the language he used about Caicedo’s future was a little softer, so this is one to watch until the end of the window. Still, make no mistake – Brighton are not playing games here, they’re not using tactics to get the best possible deal, they are simply not communicating or engaging.
Arsenal would like a midfielder before the transfer window shuts and they’re looking at a number of other targets, but I don’t see them panic-buying. Had the injury to Thomas Partey been more serious then they’d be in a slightly different position, but it looks like he’ll be okay. Mohamed Elneny being sidelined has definitely created a bit more urgency, but I don’t think they’ll rush into this because they know that in the summer, if they have Champions League football or potentially even win the Premier League, they’ll be in for an active summer where they can spend more. It’s difficult to decide what direction to go in, because there’s a case for saying get a last-minute short-term fix just to get more cover because if that’s the difference between winning the Premier League or not, then they’ll be glad they did it, and if they miss out on the title they risk being called out for not being aggressive enough late on in the transfer window.
We know midfielders are on Arsenal’s radar. Amadou Onana has indicated to all suitors that have enquired that, having only joined Everton in the summer, he would still prefer to stay and see how the club pans out under expected new manager Sean Dyche. With Youri Tielemans, it’s interesting, because we thought he’d go over the summer and Leicester didn’t do a deal based on the fact that their valuation was a little higher, and Arsenal didn’t believe that £30-35m was worth paying, so nothing happened. And Arsenal already got Fabio Vieira in prior to further talks with Tielemans, so they were quite comfortable with what they had in midfield. Now, though, it’s a different story.
We’re going to see a lot of midfield movement, I think if Chelsea get Enzo Fernandez then there’s a very real possibility that Conor Gallagher becomes available on the market. If he moves, that could be to a club like a Newcastle, who look like losing Jonjo Shelvey, so there’s a few midfielders moving around and that could create a domino effect. This means there may end up being an option for Arsenal. Think back to the summer: it was the same with Liverpool and Arthur Melo, and for Chelsea with Denis Zakaria. I don’t think we can rule out Arsenal pivoting away from Caicedo, even though time is running out.
But I think with Tielemans, to reiterate, we know he would take the Arsenal move and that, broadly speaking, terms have been agreed, dating back almost a year now. Conversations first took place last January, and there was a verbal agreement over personal terms between Arsenal and Tielemans, and the player genuinely thought the move would happen. The challenge now is Leicester, because even though you’d think, with the player not wanting to sign a new contract, that getting money for him now is better than him leaving on a free transfer in the summer, Leicester see Tielemans staying until the end of the season as more valuable than cashing in now for a relatively small amount. If Tielemans is the difference between Leicester staying up or going down, then there could be more value in keeping him now and then losing him on a free. I think Arsenal’s preference, if they do decide to target Tielemans, would still be to get him on a free in the summer if they can, and they’ll only change that approach if other clubs try to jump in ahead of them in the final hours of the transfer window.
Enzo Fernandez to Chelsea negotiations moving as we speak
Chelsea haven’t necessarily favoured Enzo Fernandez or Moises Caicedo. Fernandez had been a top target in the earlier part of the window and now they’re aggressively returning for him. It’s fair to say that after his performances at the World Cup, Chelsea were keen to jump ahead in the market for Fernandez and avoid a summer battle, which was incredibly ambitious, and they’re now trying to close the deal in the final hours of the transfer window in dramatic fashion. They’ve been like this for the whole window – exciting, high-spending, but also with a degree of planning for the present and the future.
The beauty with someone like Enzo Fernandez is that, as the best young player at the World Cup, and a World Cup winner, he ticks both boxes for Chelsea – he plays now, and he can also be a long-term signing for the football club. Even though they’re being quoted such a high price, over the long-term they’ll see this as being very valuable to them because they’ll have a top young player locked into a long-term contract, so what they’ll pay now will end up becoming market value, even if it looks high at this point. Chelsea, at the time of writing, are confident of getting this one over the line.
With Caicedo, it’s a slightly harder one because his new agents only came in late in the window, so there’s a reason we’re seeing more movement now. And the second thing is that Chelsea have a really good relationship with Brighton, so if Brighton are saying he’s not for sale after Chelsea tabled a marker bid, that could be one reason they’ve decided to move on to other targets. It’s not necessarily about having a preference between two targets, you spin both plates and ultimately see what’s possible. If Caicedo is still available in the summer and Arsenal don’t succeed, Chelsea could be back in for him. Or, hypothetically, they could find out today that Enzo Fernandez is not possible, then that could see them go back in for Caicedo – you don’t intimate that you’re ready to pay such a large amount of money for a player before entirely walking away, the market doesn’t work like that, you don’t want to entirely burn your bridges. Clubs also don’t want to have a reputation for lining up deals and promising the world before walking away and leaving the player and his agent a bit miffed. I’m sure Chelsea will have said to Caicedo that they could be back, as with Fernandez, so both know they are valued by the club regardless of what happens.
It’s important to stress that, as of first thing Monday morning, Chelsea are aggressively engaging in talks with Benfica again, so things will be moving as we speak, and Chelsea are doing everything in their power to pull off an astonishing move. They’ve intimated they are prepared to pay something close to, or equal to, the release clause number, which is £105m. Now it all comes down to the structure of the deal and if Rui Costa is willing to bend on his ‘release-clause-or-nothing’ stance. The player really wants the move, so let’s see if the clubs can agree a structure, but Chelsea have certainly been encouraged by the dialogue they’ve had with intermediaries, and now the ownership are directly involved.
That’s something that’s been intriguing about Chelsea in the entire window: their new recruitment team are learning a bit on the job, so even though Paul Winstanley and Christopher Vivell have been very important because they’re the ones with the experience of doing these kinds of deals, Behdad Eghbali is also proving to be a really astute and key figure, and Todd Boehly, even though he’s surrendered his title as interim sporting director, is still there and heavily involved. And I don’t think we can underestimate the importance of Jonathan Goldstein as well, a board member with a large array of football knowledge and input at the football club. There’s a whole lot of different figures pulling together here to try to get the ambitious Fernandez deal, and they’ve been integral to the other signings in what has been such a productive window for Chelsea.
Dusan Vlahovic, rather than Rafael Leao, might be one to watch for Chelsea
I don’t think Rafael Leao is necessarily a priority for Chelsea at this point. I think it’s very possible, come the summer, depending on outgoings, that they move for another forward, but the challenge with Leao is two-fold: firstly, the price was too high over summer and Chelsea had no desire to pay, and secondly there’s always been these talks between Milan and Leao ongoing, and if a new deal is signed it changes the complexion things. So, Chelsea haven’t been able to progress on that one.
Very similarly, with Josko Gvardiol, Chelsea made a very bold play towards the end of the summer to see if anything was possible, but it was clear the financials made no sense, and so they walked away, despite being quite close to a pre-agreement. While there may be this narrative that Chelsea are just spending frivolously, when you look at deals like this that they’ve walked away from, it’s clear they’re not just paying large sums of money and seeing what happens. We saw that as well, by the way, with Enzo Fernandez, when their first bid was actually quite a lot lower than Benfica anticipated. As mentioned, we’ve seen it with Gvardiol and Leao, and also with Matthijs de Ligt, so sometimes a failure of a transfer shows you the exact point a club walks away. There’s as much evidence of Chelsea walking away from big deals as there is of them getting them done. That shows they’re not these easily fleeced, high-paying negotiators that they’re sometimes being unfairly billed as.
Now that we can look back on this window as a whole, there’s clearly a vision and a strategy. Players like Malo Gusto and Christopher Nkunku will come in in the summer, and the one that’s impressed me is Benoit Badiashile – these are three great signings and fantastic business, and if they get Fernandez over the line as well then we can see Chelsea are doing great work investing in youth, finding players who can help now and in the future – that’s a rare commodity, so it’s worth paying for. Badiashile, for example, has come in and kept two clean sheets, he’s hit the ground running, and where Chelsea were previously looking quite shaky, they’re now looking more solid, and he’s someone who can do well for them there for a long period of time. Everyone’s been so focused on who Chelsea are going to sign next, but I think they’ve done some very astute business for arguably tremendous value, which deserves praise.
A final thing on Leao specifically – there are also plenty of other targets they’re looking at. If, say, there were was an exit for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Kai Havertz or perhaps even Raheem Sterling (though I think he’s still someone with a role to play) then there could be room for another signing on top of Nkunku’s arrival. I wouldn’t rule out a move for someone like Dusan Vlahovic over Rafa Leao – there’s a real opportunity, I’ve been told many times, that there could be an chance for him to move, more likely in the summer than (as I said back in December) in this window. Even though he’s scoring goals in Serie A, Vlahovic is not as happy at Juventus a he was at Fiorentina, and I think his head has been turned by Premier League interest. That’s one to watch in the summer, and Chelsea are one of the clubs that really like the player. So I don’t think the Leao rumours have anything particularly concrete at this stage, I think come the summer the type of forward Chelsea are looking for will be a bit different after they’ve brought in a lot of versatile, creative forwards. We’ll also see if they find a way to sign Joao Felix after his loan as well, that could be another opportunity they’ll want to consider.
The state of play on Martinelli, Saka and Saliba contracts
The Martinelli deal is done, and it’s no surprise, because about six weeks ago Martinelli was asked about signing a new contract at Arsenal and he replied something along the lines of “all they’ve got to do is hand me the pen” – this was always the easiest of those three contracts – Saka, Saliba, and Martinelli – to get over the line.
With Saka, the talks are very positive, and Arsenal have been able to extend the contracts of both him and Saliba by another year, to give them more time to come to an agreement. Saka loves Arsenal and the team are flying right now, so the only thought at the moment is about staying at Arsenal and the talks are progressing. His relationship with Mikel Arteta is really important – it’s more than just a player and manager relationship, they have a very personal relationship, and the club culture has really helped in getting buy-in from Saka to agree a new deal. When he got all that horrific racial abuse following the Euros, everyone at Arsenal, as you’d expect, and rightly so, rallied around him and made sure he was picked up very quickly in that pre-season, and Saka hasn’t forgotten that. He loves Arsenal, he believes in the project, he believes in the manager, and he’s integral to the team, so it is just now about the two parties coming together.
The complication is not about a desire on Saka’s part to leave, because he absolutely wants to sign at Arsenal, but he expects his form and progression to get improved terms that match that level of standard, and this can take time sometimes. Arsenal have to be careful not to set a precedent that can damage them in the future, because if they win the Premier League, qualify for the Champions League, every Arsenal player is going to naturally get bonuses and ask potentially for improved terms, and new players would come in on high packages as well, so you end up bumping up your wage bill and have other players holding you to to higher terms. So it’s a business consideration for Arsenal, but things are heading in the right direction and the full expectation is that Saka will stay at Arsenal. The only fear is in the longer term – Manchester City, for example, really like him, they’ve monitored him, but it’s a long-term thing because even they don’t think he’s going to be moving in the short-term. There’s generally a feeling within the industry that Saka is untouchable in the short-term. But in the long-term, it’ll be about the specifics of the contract – for example, could Saka ask for a clause where he can leave if Arsenal don’t qualify for the Champions League in any given season? He’s in a strong position to have his cake and eat it, he can push for amazing terms, and everyone knows he wants to stay and that Arsenal want him to stay, so can he work out a way to leave the door just ajar in the long-term in case the Arsenal project goes in another direction? So it will be interesting to see if they do decide to allow a clause that opens the door to future suitors, but either way I don’t see an eventuality where Saka doesn’t sign a new contract, I think that will get done.
With Saliba, that’s probably the most complicated of these three deals. The main reason for that is he really thought about staying at Marseille over the summer. He just enjoyed playing in France, and he wasn’t sure at that point what the Arsenal plan for him was. There was a window for opportunity, and there was frustration at the Marseille end because they had Champions League football and ex-manager Jorge Sampaoli was annoyed OM didn’t push harder to keep him. Obviously now things have changed, because he returned to Arsenal and spoke directly with Arteta, where he was told there was a role for him, and he got thrown straight into the side and hit the ground running. He’s now indispensable to Arsenal, and that form he’s shown, and that integration into the team, has convinced Saliba that he doesn’t need to move back to France. So now it’s just about the terms of the contract, because he can look at where Arsenal are heading, and he can look at the players he’s alongside, and can naturally ask for a bit more.
PSG are still one to watch in the long-term. They’re desperate to buy young, and desperate to buy French, so if no deal is signed there could be a window of opportunity there. Some say Saliba wouldn’t be prepared to play for PSG having also represented OM, but remember Saliba was born in Bondy, six miles from the centre of Paris. He would absolutely be open to joining if it became an option one day. Still, the advantage Arsenal have is that PSG have locked in Milan Skriniar on a free transfer for the summer, and in the last hours of January they might try to get him now, so it means they’ve got a centre-back. Arsenal will probably be quite happy that that’s been done because it gives PSG their number one target in that position. Arsenal now just need to make sure they don’t rock their wage bill and lose their disciplined approach. One big contract renewal can set the tone for other contract renewals, and Arsenal will want to make sure they remain disciplined and don’t set a bad precedent. They don’t fear any rivals, for Saliba or any other of these deals. They know it’s all in their own hands and why wouldn’t it be as long as they are flying.
Deals to watch before the deadline
If Chelsea do get Enzo Fernandez that might mean Conor Gallagher becomes available on the market. A few clubs have a long-standing interest in him, including Newcastle and Crystal Palace, so that could be one to watch in the final hours of the window. I’m told the suitors who’ve looked at Gallagher would prefer a loan, with an option to buy, but Chelsea might not be keen to accept that with a Premier League rival. Still, if an offer pushed close to £40m (in the option or via a permanent deal) there is very possibly going to be movement..
Hakim Ziyech is also still on the market, but there’s not been much progress there. Roma and Newcastle have looked at him, while he’d like to return to Ajax, despite them ruling it out. All clubs have the same problem, however, which is the fee – Chelsea value Ziyech at around £7-10m higher than clubs are willing to pay, as close as possible to the £33m they paid for him, so clubs will have to go up significantly on what we’ve seen so far, and the reason they want a lower fee is because his wages are high, so that could be a major obstacle in the coming days.
The last thing to note is there are a few forwards who could leave late on in the window. Michail Antonio at West Ham, for example, has said quite openly that there’s talks and that he can’t rule anything out. There is some interest from the MLS, and also from both the UAE and Qatar, and there might even be a couple of Premier League clubs who try their luck on that one, though I think West Ham will try to hold firm because of the injury to Danny Ings.
Ayoze Perez at Leicester is another to watch – he’s been a bit hit and miss since joining, and he’s a player they’d be prepared to let go. I think we should also keep an eye out on the Jack Harrison pursuit that Leicester have tried. Leeds don’t want to sell, but if Leicester do manage to sign Harrison, does that then open the door to a last-minute offer for James Maddison? That would be a big surprise, and Leicester have been clear that Maddison is not for sale, but a summer transfer could be more likely, assuming Leicester don’t offer him a new deal.
I think that the likes of Newcastle and Tottenham could revisit that one in the summer, and I’m told that Newcastle used this January to enquire about Maddison, and were Leicester to bring in Harrison alongside Tete, who’s just arrived, that could perhaps open the door to someone at least asking the question even if there’s a low chance of that coming off right now.