With just eight contenders left for the 2014 FIFA World Cup, CaughtOffside takes a look at the favourites and the outsiders ahead of this weekend’s quarter finals.
Seven thrilling last sixteen ties, as well as Argentina vs. Switzerland, have now been played, and just eight contenders remain to lift the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Rio de Janeiro on July 13th. Despite plenty of scares and a handful of penalty shoot-outs along the way, the eight group winners emerged unscathed from their ties to complete a mouth-watering quarter final line-up that sees four matches which could go either way. It’s a tough one to call, then, but we’ve tried to do it anyway.
8) Costa Rica
They have done incredibly well to reach this stage, but Costa Rica find themselves as the rank outsiders in the quarter finals and only one of three teams to have made this stage who have never won the competition in the past.
The Costa Ricans were less convincing against Greece in the last sixteen, albeit hampered by a red card and unfortunate to concede an injury time equaliser, but they held their nerve brilliantly in what was an absurdly high quality penalty shoot-out.
Joel Campbell, however, looked absolutely shot by the end of the match and Costa Rica will need him to be at full fitness if they are to have any chance of pulling off another shock against The Netherlands.
7) Belgium
The second period of extra-time in Belgium’s narrow 2-1 win over the USA in the last sixteen will, for me at least, remain as one of the tournament’s enduring images – an absurd see-sawing took place as previously rampant Belgium suddenly lost all energy, belief and shape, somehow clinging on against a rampant USA side who appeared to be in the same predicament just moments later.
The game was, however, the first time in the tournament that this potentially thrilling young Belgian side have dazzled in any way, with only American goalkeeper Tim Howard stopping them from progressing relatively comfortably.
Manager Marc Wilmots was once again able to change the game after substitutes Romelu Lukaku and Kevin Mirallas made all the difference, but we have reached a stage where he must begin to get his starting line-ups right if the Red Devils are to beat the likes of Argentina.
6) Colombia
There is an argument that Colombia have been the best team in the tournament, let alone down in sixth, but it is hard to escape the feeling that Jose Pekerman and his team are approaching their defining moment.
If they are able to beat Brazil, displaying the thrilling, lightning quick counter-attacking football that they have done so far in the tournament, then they have to be considered as genuine contenders. If James Rodriguez puts in a fifth successive stunning World Cup performance then he must be considered as one of world football’s genuine superstars.
These, however, remain as maybes. As impressive as Colombia have been, they are yet to beat anyone particularly impressive themselves, which is why the Brazil match is so intriguing. On the two teams’ performances so far then Colombia are more than capable, but can they handle the mental pressure of playing the hosts after successive games that may as well have been played in Bogota?
5) Germany
Germany are another team who have progressed relatively comfortably to the quarter final, without ever approaching a level of performance that would justify describing them as convincing.
The history of the World Cup is, of course, not devoid of examples of teams who have gone on to win the tournament or, at least, make it through to the last four, despite not hitting anything like their stride until the quarter or even semi final.
Joachim Low is a manager who does, however, continue to give the impression of a man who has simply messed around with things too much, arriving at a point where no one really knows what kind of system Germany are supposed to be playing.
Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze were both, once again, peripheral against Algeria in the last sixteen, but the performances of Thomas Muller continue to mean that Germany retain a constant goal threat. A better team may also be able to exploit their painfully slow defence playing an absurdly high line, with Manuel Neuer saving them by a matter of milliseconds on occasions against the North Africans.
4) The Netherlands
The Netherlands’ performances at this World Cup are tough to analyse – but it’s hard to argue with a team who have won four out of four to make it to the quarter finals.
Since eviscerating Spain in the first game and, in doing so, producing perhaps the performance of the tournament, the Dutch seem to have regressed somewhat, despite Louis van Gaal’s tactical tweaks pulling it out of the bag against Chile and latterly Mexico.
Costa Rica is a kind quarter final draw and the Dutch will expect to be in the semi-finals but, with either Brazil or Colombia lying in wait, I am not convinced that their energetic but positionally indisciplined defence wouldn’t be led a merry dance by someone like Neymar or James Rodriguez.
3) Argentina
It’s all very well relying on the best player in the world, but even when your talisman is Lionel Messi it is dangerous to be underperforming as a team to the extent that Argentina are.
The former’s winning goal against Switzerland aside, Angel Di Maria, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Ezequiel Lavezzi have contributed virtually nothing between them, despite being built up as the perfect supporting cast for Messi’s prodigious talent.
Sabella’s team have been lucky to face four fundamentally flawed teams in succession, something which they may once again benefit from against an unconvincing Belgium side in the quarter finals – but right now it is very hard to see them beating France, or even Germany, if they do make it through.
2) Brazil
There are plenty of perfectly good reasons for putting Luiz Felipe Scolari’s underwhelming Brazil team lower down this list, but part of me is convinced that the Selecao have their ‘what if?’ moment.
When Mauricio Pinilla crashed the ball against the bar in the 119th minute of the last sixteen clash against Chile, the nation collectively held its breath, the 23 members of Scolari’s squad were millimetres away from becoming footballing pariahs in their own country, failing to make the quarter final on home turf.
Football has a funny habit of immortalising these moments by the events that come after them – and it is not a massive stretch to see that strike of the crossbar and subsequent penalty victory in Belo Horizonte being one of the defining moments of a Brazil World Cup victory.
They undoubtedly have to improve, however, with Paulinho, Hulk and Fred still seeming to take more away from the team than they bring to it and Oscar finding himself horribly out of form. Over to you, Neymar.
1) France
It may seem a surprise to many, but Didier Deschamps’ France team have been the closest that this World Cup has to a team convincing enough both in their performances and the likelihood of them actually winning the tournament.
From the first two games, when they methodically dismantled Honduras and Switzerland, the French have looked like genuine contenders to pick up only their second World Cup title.
A insipid 0-0 draw against Ecuador in their final game was notable only for its irrelevance, but the French were back on form to see off Nigeria in the last sixteen once Deschamps made the decision to move top scorer Karim Benzema upfront.
It is fair to suggest that France are yet to face a genuinely world class team, but on current form it is hard to see past them beating Germany in their upcoming quarter final and firmly establishing themselves as potential winners.