4) Chelsea injuries
Chelsea will still have a pretty strong team out in Baku that can beat Arsenal on its day, but they will not be helped by some of the big names missing.
N’Golo Kante looks unlikely to play, joining Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Antonio Rudiger on the injury list.
Kante’s importance is obvious, while Rudiger has been a regular in Chelsea’s defence this season and will likely be replaced by the unconvincing Andreas Christensen.
Further forward, Loftus-Cheek and Hudson-Odoi have not always been regular starters, but have improved a lot as the season’s gone on and found particular joy with opportunities in this competition.
Arsenal don’t have the best midfield in the world, but will fancy their chances a lot more if Kante and Loftus-Cheek aren’t in there as they’ll likely come up against a rather lightweight trio of Jorginho, Mateo Kovacic and Ross Barkley.
5) Arsenal have the better strikers
Big games like this can be decided on moments of individual quality in attack, or a dreadful mistake in defence.
Shkodran Mustafi shouldn’t be starting for Arsenal, so that makes the latter less of a likely worry for them, so it could come down to the quality of the finishing.
Gooners will hope both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette start in Baku, as they have shown in the Europa League just how clinical they are.
Both were superb in the semi-final win over Valencia, with Aubameyang hitting a brilliant hat-trick with Emery’s side needed it most in that second leg.
Chelsea, by contrast, don’t have that kind of goal threat in their side, with Gonzalo Higuain proving a total flop since joining on loan, with even the rather limited Olivier Giroud perhaps the better option, though more for his link-up play with Eden Hazard than his goal threat.
6) Arsenal need it more
If this Chelsea squad already look to be low in morale and perhaps lacking in motivation, that shouldn’t be an issue with Arsenal.
The north London giants know they need to win this game to get back into the Champions League, while Chelsea already have that wrapped up after finishing higher in the league.
Of course, Arsenal’s need for Champions League football didn’t particularly help them in the final few games of the Premier League season, but in this one-off fixture the task is that much clearer.
Add to that that Emery’s Arsenal have generally looked a little better in the big games than they did in recent years under Arsene Wenger, and you’d expect they could really rise to the occasion here.