Sports betting is not just restricted to the action on the pitch. Often, some of the best betting action can be had on activities related to the game. Football transfers are the best example of this.
Since they have a massive impact on the fortunes of a team, transfers attract a lot of attention from the media and fans. And as they take place during the season break, they give you something to dwell on while waiting for the season to start.
In the major leagues in Europe, the level of hype generated often dwarfs the action on the pitch itself. And it is not just Europe that gets bitten by transfer fever. Across the Atlantic lies one of the biggest sports betting markets in the world.
With massive speculation doing the rounds, transfers are an amazing market for betting. With the right wagers, you can win a tidy sum during the transfer season. But to make those kinds of wagers, you need to know the ins and outs of betting on football transfers.
Where to bet on football transfers?
The answer to this one is pretty straightforward – at your regular sportsbook, be it online or offline. If they are one of the big brands, they are sure to offer some transfer betting action from the major leagues.
Football transfers are a betting market that falls well within the scope of sports betting. It is just a niche market, albeit a wildly popular one among fans. That last bit is extremely important when considering a sportsbook for football transfers.
For the most part, transfers may generate a lot of media hype, but they do not have mainstream appeal. Only the big sportsbooks will accept wagers on the latest transfer gossip, that too usually when it involves the big stars like Neymar, Cristiano, or Griezmann.
So if you want the maximum number of options when it comes to transfer betting, look at major sportsbooks like William Hill, Betway, Bet365, and 888.
Who should bet on football transfers?
In plain-speak, anybody can bet on football transfers. But if you want to consistently taste success, you need to put in a lot of effort. And by effort, we mean research, tons of it. This is fun if you are a hardcore fan of football.
So our strong recommendation is this – if you don’t have anything more than a passing interest in the game of football, you might be better off betting on matches instead of transfers.
You need to know the roster of not just your favorite club team, but also other major teams in the league as well as overseas leagues. And you should also have an idea about the big stars and in-form players in the leagues.
If keeping yourself updated about all these things comes naturally to you, then perfect – you are ready to bet on transfers. But if they sound like a slog or chore, don’t bother.
The importance of timing your bets
In most major leagues around the world, there are two main transfer windows – one in the summer (post/pre-season) and one in winter (mid-season). While clubs can only sign players in these two windows, the negotiations and processes leading up to the transfer often starts months in advance.
The timing of your bet is important because it can determine the odds offered by the bookmaker. For instance, Hazard left Chelsea for Real Madrid this summer. If you had placed a wager on that six months in advance, you would have won more money, due to the higher odds.
You see, transfers are a highly complicated business and many things can go wrong in the run-up. Just look at the fiasco that left Griezmann at Atletico Madrid last year – it seemed like a certain transfer, but the player chose inexplicably at the last minute to stay.
So, if you strongly feel that a transfer will go through no matter what, you can even place a wager now on some big player leaving for new pastures in the coming windows. Neymar seems like a safe bet, given his unhappiness at PSG. But if you want to play it safe, you might want to wait until the opening of the transfer window.
Focus on these player factors
Gossip and rumors play a huge part in football transfer reporting. Often, the player’s agents themselves spread rumors in the hope of attracting attention from multiple clubs. You should be very careful when basing your bets on just transfer gossip.
There are some basic things that you can do to weed out the ridiculous and impossible transfer rumors from the more credible and plausible ones. The first thing you need to do is look at the player himself.
Is he happy at his current club? Is he getting enough playing time? Are his wage demands being met? If the answer is in the negative to at least a few of these questions, a transfer could be on the cards. One place to look for info is the player’s social media feeds like Twitter and Instagram.
Another important factor is the current playing form of the guy. If he is banging in goals for fun, or leading the assist charts, big clubs may be angling for him. The form is important as it can result in a transfer, even if the player is happy at the current club.
Look for these things at the teams involved
Whenever you are analyzing a transfer rumor, look at the two clubs involved. If they are rivals in the same league, like Real Madrid-Barcelona, or Manchester United-Liverpool, the chances are slim of a major transfer.
But if they are at different levels in terms of prestige and size, or different leagues, then you should look at the logic behind the transfer: is the buying team lacking a player of that caliber?
Both Liverpool and Manchester United spent insane amounts of cash on center backs in recent seasons because they were in desperate need of some quality in their backlines.
On the flip side, is the selling club willing to part with the player? If not, they can ask for a pile of cash just to discourage the sale. That brings us to the issue of money. Football transfers these days involve insane figures, but not every club has bottomless pockets like Manchester City.
Some, like Tottenham, have something even worse – owners, who are tightfisted when it comes to spending money. If they are part of the equation, even highly likely transfers, like the one involving Christian Erikson this summer, can end up going nowhere.
So, you see, there are a lot of factors that need to be considered when weighing up transfer rumors involving football clubs. But if you keep yourself updated on these aspects, you will find plenty of joy with your wagers on the transfer market.