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Simulations suggest Real Madrid will miss out on La Liga title as Barcelona pay the ultimate price for Luis Suarez decision

It’s been a fascinating final few weeks in La Liga as the top three have done their best to throw the title away, but it finally looks like Atletico Madrid are going to do it.

It’s not completely simple as they travel away to face a Real Valladolid team who simply must win if they want to avoid relegation, so it’s clear that at least one team are going to be left heartbroken at the final whistle.

It’s never a huge footballing moment if a supercomputer isn’t wheeled out to do some calculations, and it appears that Opta are predicting that Diego Simeone’s men will do it.

Their simulator has both Madrid teams winning on the final day, but Atleti are two points clear at the top so if they win then nothing else matters. Real do have the better head-to-head record so they would take it if they finish level on points, and it’s for that reason that they are given a 25% chance of winning.

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The main reason for Atleti’s success has been the form of Luis Suarez and his 20 goals which have taken them to this point, while you wouldn’t bet against him adding to that total on Saturday either.

It’s still absolute madness that Barcelona gave him away for nothing in the summer and they will be kicking themselves that they’ve given a title rival some much-needed firepower for nothing, but if it stops Real winning the title then there will be some consolation in that.

Real Madrid are at home to a Villarreal team who need to win to secure a Europa League spot, so a victory for them isn’t completely straightforward either, but all Atleti need to do is win against a team who have one of the worst defensive records in the division….. surely they’ll do it?

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