Man Utd & Chelsea in the frame for Kane transfer, Mudryk to Arsenal latest – Exclusive Ben Jacobs column

Hello and welcome to my weekly column for CaughtOffside, featuring exclusive transfer news on Harry Kane, Mykhaylo Mudryk and Kylian Mbappe.

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What’s the latest on Harry Kane’s future?

From Spurs’ perspective, there is a calmness that they can persuade Harry Kane to continue, as with Antonio Conte. Kane will feel the next step in his career is vital – he either sticks with Spurs, with the realisation that he’ll be there for the peak of his career, so he’ll therefore want confidence that they’re heading in the right direction. Or, he can twist, and get one more big deal at an elite club, taking him into his early to mid-30s. So we’ll have to see if he decides to stay or to try something new.

The form of Tottenham has been hit and miss, but they’re fifth in the Premier League and not too far off the top four, into the knockout stage of the Champions League as well. They’ve had a few wobbles, but it’s not all doom and gloom – there’s an inconsistency with how they play and there’s a need to strengthen, but when you look at the situation I think Kane will want to look at this and assess how things go later this season. If he continues his own fine form he can be a defining force in pushing the club forward.

Tottenham’s aim is to become automatic Champions League qualifiers, something Chelsea have done very well in years gone by – regardless of whether or not they win a trophy, you expect them to be in the title race, or at worst finish third or fourth, ideally with a bit of breathing space. With that, they can plan their budget around Champions League football, and it can take the project forward. Spurs and Conte want to see if they can back up what they achieved last season and that will have a big impact on Kane’s future.

Still, it’s important to stress that Kane’s head is not where it was when he was being pursued by Manchester City. During that saga, Kane was very open to a move away and thought that it was the right time, but a lot has changed since and I think he’s now very happy under Conte, and with the whole culture of the club as a whole. For example, you look at that missed penalty for England at the World Cup against his club teammate Hugo Lloris – the whole club have actively ensured that didn’t become an issue, they dealt with it internally and my understanding is that these conversations between the Tottenham squad help create unity, and that helps Kane feel like he’s part of the Tottenham family.

For Man City, before Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez arrived, Kane was a massive target. I think Kane also felt it was the right time, the right club, and the right manager for him to move, but there’s one reason it didn’t happen and that’s Daniel Levy – he didn’t want to sell. Although there was a desire from the player, there was never an ability for the club to get it done. The asking price was as high as £200m – a crazy number more commonly associated with a release clause used to ward off suitors. There was absolutely no intention from Tottenham to negotiate, or even entertain talks – Man City were basically talking to a brick wall and that’s why nothing happened. From Kane’s perspective at that time, I think there was a sense of bafflement because it wasn’t even something Spurs would consider; I think when you’re a player who’s been at a club for a long time there’s an expectation that there’d be some negotiating room, but it was a straight ‘no’ from Spurs and an extortionate price, so there was no room for City to do the deal.

It’s also not true that Kane threw his toys out of the pram, or refused to train, or tried to force a move in any way, even though that was reported by some outlets at the time. What he did was make his feelings clear privately, and he felt that Tottenham were entirely in control of the situation without engaging him.

Harry Kane has 18 months left on his contract at Spurs

But the Kane then and the Kane now are very different players with a very different mindset, and obviously there’s no longer interest from Man City. So which other suitors might come into the mix? We know there’s been a historical interest from Bayern Munich, but I’ve been told pretty consistently that Kane isn’t sold on going to Germany. People tend to put two and two together because Bayern, more often than not, will finish the season with something in their trophy cabinet, and of course he’d have Champions League football.

However, there are two issues – the transfer fee is difficult for Bayern, and Kane himself doesn’t necessarily want to leave the Premier League, where he feels settled. Going and playing in the Bundesliga at that age can be very difficult – I think when youngsters go to a foreign league, and adapt to a new culture, a new language, it can be easier in many ways than when you’re an older player in a new club, a new dressing room and a new challenge of a very different nature. Perhaps a move abroad could happen later, nearer the end of his career, but I think for now the absolute preference would be to stay within the Premier League.

Real Madrid have been linked with Kane as well, but again they’re not going to pay the kind of transfer fee that’s been quoted for Kane. It’s no longer £200m but it’s still in excess of £100m for someone approaching their 30s, and I don’t think Real Madrid see any value in that, especially when they’re after Jude Bellingham as well. We’ll see what happens over the course of the summer, clubs tend to spin multiple plates because they don’t know which races they’re going to win and which ones they’re going to lose, but it’s important to stress that Real Madrid’s priority is Jude Bellingham. If they can only spend £100-plus-million on one player, their priority would be Bellingham over Kane. I think Kane’s transfer fee is very likely to put Real Madrid off.

Within the Premier League, the challenge Kane has is are Tottenham prepared to sell to a rival? I think at the moment he does want to re-sign with Spurs, but if that changes, I think Manchester United and Chelsea could come into the conversation. The Chelsea ownership are huge admirers of Harry Kane, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be bought or sold. Sometimes the way clubs operate sets a marker – with Christian Pulisic, for example, when he was offered potentially an opportunity at Manchester United and Newcastle and wanted to loan him, Todd Boehly made it clear he didn’t want to loan the player to a rival even with an option to buy. When you set that marker and say you don’t want to do business with Premier League rivals, if you then come calling and you’ve said that over another deal, it can be that bit harder to get the deal done. There’s no evidence out there that Daniel Levy would like to, if it’s his only option, to sell Kane to a Premier League rival. The Man City transfer saga shows that to a certain extent.

The final thing to say on Kane is that the contract’s ticking down, so Spurs have a bit less leverage than they did during that Man City saga. Still, I don’t think there’s any panic, they’re calm about this – they’ve had reassurances that Kane’s happy and wants to stay at the club. But let’s see how the season pans out. I still think a lot of the links are premature at the moment, especially the narrative around Bayern Munich pushing hard for Kane, that’s simply not the case because they’ve had it intimated to them that the price will be very possibly out of their reach and that Kane isn’t keen to go to Europe.

Arsenal remain optimistic over Mykhaylo Mudryk

At the time of writing, there’s no done deal for Mykhaylo Mudryk. Things can move quickly, and of course the fact that there are direct talks, and communications through intermediaries, it tells you that Arsenal are still at the table and very active, and they remain optimistic. When a club has two bids turned down but there is still verbal back and forth over the fee and structure, it shows you in a short and fast window that Arsenal are very serious and believe that a deal can get done.

From the meetings and talks that have taken place on Monday and Tuesday between the two clubs, there was still no done deal, verbal or formal, but everything continues to move in the right direction. Mudryk is now with Shakhtar’s training camp, and he’s playing and training as normal, so he’s not trying to force any kind of move. Of course, if you follow his social media it looks like a slightly different story, but a lot of that is just gamesmanship. Mudryk has remained very respectful of Shakhtar, he has a close bond with his teammates, and therefore he doesn’t want to leave on bad terms. He’s made it clear that he’s aware that a move in the middle of the season is not all in his control, so for all the clamour on social media, watching Arsenal, liking their posts and so on, he’s very aware that he needs to be on the same page as Shakhtar and respectful towards their hierarchy.

I think that’s a key point that a lot of people may not realise, that the way Shakhtar do business is quite different from many clubs both globally and around Europe. Intermediaries are very important here, there are a lot of people involved, and their president is highly, highly ambitious. You get clubs that are labelled as ‘selling clubs’ and many people might assume Shakhtar need the money, the president is very comfortable in his position, even with the war in Ukraine. He’s funded a lot of ventures in the country and has supported the infrastructure to keep the league alive. Yes, Shakhtar will sell for the right deal, but there isn’t any real urgency to cash in. They feel he could still be a profitable player for them in the summer as well, so it is quite difficult to strike a deal, not just for Mudryk, but any of their players. Everyone in the industry says the same thing: dealing with Shakhtar is very difficult, it’s tricky and time-consuming. Luckily for Arsenal, it’s the January window so there has to be an element of speed to this, but don’t be too surprised if this one drags on for a few weeks.

The main conversation at the moment is about the structure rather than necessarily the number. Shakhtar have said publicly that they want €100m, and both of Arsenal’s bids were under €70m, though the second one was quite close. Arsenal have a top-end valuation in mind and it doesn’t match Shakhtar’s €100m. Still, it isn’t just about the number, and my understanding at the moment is that Arsenal will be prepared to go a little higher provided that the structure suits them. As time ticks away, Shakhtar will, in all likelihood, concede a little bit and go slightly lower, with a package with bonuses that suits them and gets them close to the number they’re looking for. I wouldn’t see this deal as €100m, because €100m means nothing if, to give you an extreme example, it’s €10m guaranteed and €90m in add-ons contingent on Arsenal winning the Premier League in three consecutive seasons or something ridiculous like that. Again, you can call that fee €100m in principle, but you only see €10m of that. At the other extreme, if Arsenal are offering a healthy guaranteed fee of a preferable payment structure to Shakhtar and the add-ons are gettable, then Shakhtar may accept a lower fee because it still suits them. Everyone’s fixating on the number and asking why don’t Arsenal just go higher, but it’s about finding the value for a priority signing that they really want. They’re not going to cave quickly because that’s not how Arsenal do business.

It’s important to take into account the backdrop of the summer here, when Shakhtar rejected a €30m bid for Mudryk from Everton. At the time, they said they wanted around €45m, so they’ve seemingly added €55m to the asking price in a matter of four or five months simply because Mudryk has had a good first half of the season and shone on the Champions League stage. That’s a massive increase. When Arsenal enquired over the summer and were quoted €45m, they walked away, because they just didn’t think it was good value, so you can understand why if they were not prepared to pay €45m over the summer, how €100m in whatever structure seems a little extortionate. So, a back and forth is taking place, but I think the parties are reaching a little more consensus on the guaranteed part of the fee. So now it will depend on the bonuses and the add-ons, and how much Arsenal are prepared to offer and how gettable they are. It’s easy to bring the total up to €80m or above with add-ons if you know they are highly, highly unlikely to ever be activated, and if they are activated it’s tied to some extreme level of success. Shakhtar have to know they’re highly likely to get a healthy package.

I think the guaranteed portion of the fee, if it gets done, will be around €50m, or closer possibly to €55-60m. Talks are ongoing and it could be concluded quickly, but certainly the notion as of Monday or Tuesday morning that a deal was already done, is incorrect, as of my understanding.

No regrets for Liverpool after choosing Darwin Nunez over Christopher Nkunku

Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea is done, it’s been pre-agreed for the summer. The reason RB Leipzig haven’t announced it yet is because the player is injured until February, and in addition to that clubs with players outgoing, especially when they’re in the Champions League, don’t necessarily want to announce it too early as it’s a distraction for them, so they prefer to dismiss the notion of a done deal as a rumour.

Chelsea’s tactic, very wisely, has been to move early in order to stop other suitors coming in, and to bid slightly above the release clause to get a more preferable payment structure, and by bidding slightly above that clause they’ve agreed a financial package with Leipzig. Usually with a release clause, the number is above market value to ward off suitors, and although if a club triggers it, the club can do nothing, it is seen as exceptional business for the seller because it’s a big number paid all in one lump sum.

Nkunku was different – he’d signed a new contract with Leipzig, which is a strange thing to do when you’re planning to move away. But he negotiated a better wage and it gave him that leverage to negotiate a better package for himself with Chelsea. Leipzig also established the clause at slightly below Nkunku’s market value, because it was a figure they felt was reasonable and it would help set off a summer transfer. So, Chelsea saw that, they knew it was not especially high, and so paying slightly above didn’t feel extortionate to Chelsea. They feel like they’re getting a decent deal, Leipzig get slightly above the release clause and it’s all been done quickly and cleanly, and in many ways everybody wins.

Nkunku will join Chelsea over the summer and he’ll give them exactly what they need – goals and creativity. He’s scored 12 goals in just 15 Bundesliga games this season, he scored 20 in the Bundesliga last season in 34 appearances, and since 2021/22, he’s been on fire domestically. It’s a shame he’s injured at the moment but Chelsea are across that and they know it’s not particularly serious and won’t impact the transfer in any way, shape, or form.

The reason I think Liverpool didn’t move for Nkunku is just because they are always keen to explore multiple targets, and Nkunku was one of them, but they moved for Darwin Nunez, and they’re still very confident in that deal. Although they’re not identical players, Liverpool are very discerning about who they buy – it’s very easy to see a great player and wonder why he’s not at your club, but Liverpool decided that Darwin Nunez was going to be their big outlay, they beat Manchester United to him and now they’re hoping that a fairly rough-edge player who’s been a bit hit and miss in front of goal so far, will start to become more prolific. I don’t think Liverpool will rue not signing Nkunku, we’ll still have to see how he adapts to English football.

What we do know about Nkunku is he’s been very prolific in front of goal since the start of last season, and when you look at the likes of Kai Havertz, Christian Pulisic, Raheem Sterling, none of them have been particularly clinical for Chelsea at this stage. They’ve all got high potential, but that lack of confidence and consistency will maybe convince Chelsea that Nkunku, and Joao Felix in the second half of this season, can chip in with both goals and assists.

Christopher Nkunku will join join Chelsea next season

The arrival of Nkunku and the impact on Romelu Lukaku is not necessarily that significant. Lukaku’s situation is that he wants to stay at Inter, and the complications are at Inter’s end, because he’s been injured and hasn’t made the impact Inter were hoping for. Under the original deal, which was a season-long loan, there was a verbal agreement that a second-year loan would be established, because at that point all parties wanted longevity, and Inter were not prepared to pay the kind of transfer fee for a permanent deal that Chelsea wanted. Originally, Chelsea tried to go down another route with player swap deals to make up for the big money they paid for him. Players like Milan Skriniar, Denzel Dumfries, and even Lautaro Martinez were discussed, but there was no desire from Inter to trade anybody, they were able to use the leverage of the fact that Lukaku wanted out of Chelsea and to go back to Inter. So because of that player desire and the urgency of the new Chelsea owners to resolve the situation, Inter were able to get a deal on their terms. Now I think it’s a case of Lukaku getting fit and scoring again to persuade Inter that they would like to proceed with an extension of Lukaku’s stay. Then we’ll see at the end of that if there’s an obligation to buy added. For Chelsea, I don’t think they’re planning for Lukaku to be part of their future. That’s not because they don’t respect him, it’s just because the player is very set on staying at Inter beyond this season.

With players like Nkunku and Felix, I think the impact will be more on players like Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech, who are very much available on the market. Ziyech has very high wages, which is putting off a lot of clubs – Newcastle United, for example, didn’t want to pay Ziyech’s wages because they didn’t want to break their wage structure too significantly, while they have Financial Fair Play concerns as well. Unless they qualify for the Champions League and can change their budget, they have to be careful, and Eddie Howe is very keen as well to keep unity, and the way to do that is not to, half way through the season, bring in a new player on sky-high wages, which could potentially unsettle the rest of the squad. Ziyech would love to return to Ajax, but it’s not looking likely. Milan were interested in the summer but their interest has cooled at the moment. Ziyech’s an interesting one, because he had a superb World Cup, getting to the semi-finals with Morocco and showing he can add goals, creativity, leadership, and even defensive qualities. So it wouldn’t surprise me if Graham Potter maybe tries to give Ziyech a bit more of a consistent run in the team. With Nkunku and Felix, the players who’ll be impacted could be Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Kai Havertz, who Chelsea don’t want to let go, but there’s a question about how they use both Felix and Havertz – do they just play one of them? If it’s not going to be Felix, that’s a lot of money to spend on a loan. Or will Potter play both of them? There will be selection headaches as it is, so I don’t expect Lukaku to be part of that thinking.

What’s the truth behind those Kylian Mbappe stories from earlier this season?

Kylian Mbappe draws a lot of media attention, and so every story I think has to be taken with a pinch of salt to some extent. We were told a few months back, for example, that he was asking to leave immediately, and wanted to quit PSG in the January transfer window, which was nonsense. PSG will not sell Mbappe in January, they have said for months that they would not let him go in January.

It’s important to note that when PSG tied Mbappe down to a new deal, it was not just to keep him for the long term, it was also to protect the sell-on value, so there was never a possibility of them losing him on a free transfer. When he renewed, it was at the back of their mind that if he goes sooner rather than later, regardless of what the contract extension says, they’ve protected the value. They either win because they get to keep the player, or because they get the transfer fee they’re looking for. PSG are very flexible in that respect – if in the summer the right offer emerges and he wants to leave, they’ll ensure his price is met and they’ll allow him to be sold. But that’s not the thinking at the moment, Mbappe is happy and settled in Paris. The same for Lionel Messi, even though they were against each other in the World Cup final, they’re very much pulling in the same direction at PSG, and even Neymar has had a great season too. So it’s ironic that we were told last summer that Neymar wanted out immediately, we were told Mbappe regretted signing a new deal with PSG, we were told that Messi was headed for the MLS, when in actual fact he’s now very likely to extend his contract, and Neymar and Mbappe are both settled and performing very well. PSG have everything in place on the footballing side to focus on winning the Champions League, so I think it’s premature to speculate that Mbappe is thinking about his next move; much like Messi and Neymar, he wants to win the Champions League with PSG after a range of near-misses.

As for Mbappe’s contract, it doesn’t make him de-facto manager or give him any undue say or control over the club. The control is around concessions within his contract to give the Mbappe brand the highest possible ability to earn. Mbappe sees himself as a brand in the same way that Messi and Ronaldo are, and sometimes there can be conflicts – you might do a personal deal that has a conflict of interest with the club, so you might want more personal freedom and flexibility to do more media, photoshoots, and bringing in more revenue. There’s full flexibility there for Mbappe to use his image rights to do commercial deals, and that can reward both Mbappe and PSG.

Of course, his opinion holds weight and it’s not unusual for a player of that calibre to have a say in and discuss the direction of a project that’s being built around him. But there’s nothing in the contract, as I understand it, that would give him the final say over a transfer or a manager, but there’s everything in the contract that allows him to earn on the side and maximise his own brand. We know very well that the younger generation of fans follow players as well as a team – Cristiano Ronaldo, as we know, recently joined Al Nassr, and it immediately meant their social media following doubling, tripling, quadrupling because of Ronaldo. That’s the power players have got now, and clubs realise they can make money off a player rather than the team brand. A club would traditionally think about their brand because it’s something stable you can control and build on. With a player, depending on where they’re from, who their fans are, this can open you up to new audiences, which in turn brings revenue. Traditionally, even if a player contributed to that, they wouldn’t necessarily get a slice of the pie. There’s more of a balance now, and I think PSG are trying to balance the two and maximise the potential of both of them, so that means PSG might have to concede a little to their players, because the players are aware of their power, and they can leave at any moment, affecting the value of the club.

The owners of PSG, QSI, now that the World Cup is over, have got a highly ambitious 2023. PSG remain their flagship club, but they also want to invest in other clubs in Europe, in South America, and they want to do this relatively fast in 2023. One of the clubs they’re interested in, as I exclusively revealed a few days ago, could be Tottenham. Nasser Al-Khelaifi, on behalf of QSI, rather than PSG, has spoken with Daniel Levy. I must add that that Tottenham deny those talks took place.

Still, QSI looking to expand their multi-club model will affect PSG and therefore play into the Mbappe situation as well. If PSG and QSI get bigger and more global, there will be more opportunities and incentives for Mbappe to maximise his own brand commercially. PSG are also likely to sell a stake of the club later in 2023 to one of a few consortiums who are currently in advanced talks. This is not QSI stepping back from PSG, it’s about finding strategic partners to generate funding, and it can help them modernise the entire football club. Mbappe, Messi and Neymar will all be part of the appeal to potential partners, this helps their value, so they will want to use the Mbappe brand, and he can use the QSI ambition. So he needs to decide, does he want to stay with PSG in the long run and make the most of his earning possibilities and control? (He’s certainly not as unhappy as some reports have made out.) Or does he want to move to Real Madrid? As I’ve said before, though, Real Madrid can’t afford Mbappe and Bellingham, so decisions will have to be made. PSG are quite content with the situation – if they keep him, that’s part of their plan, but if they lose him, they’re going to get the fee they were looking for.