Hello and welcome to my weekly exclusive column for CaughtOffside – click here to subscribe for a Daily Briefing straight to your inbox, plus other exclusive content from top journalists like Christian Falk and Jonathan Johnson!
Will Lionel Messi wait for Barcelona?
Lionel Messi still only has two formal offers on the table: one from Saudi, with Al-Hilal the expected club, and another from David Beckham’s MLS franchise Inter Miami.
Messi would love to stay in Europe, but Barcelona still haven’t made a formal offer and time is running out. Jorge Messi did meet with Joan Laporta on Monday and fuelled speculation Messi might join by telling journalist Toni Juanmarti, “Messi wants to return to Barcelona and I would love for him to come back. It’s an option”.
The problem for Barcelona is that Messi wants to finalise his next club right away. And in Saudi Arabia there is confidence he will join Al-Hilal. Dealmakers believe the done is pretty much done. Messi has even been shown accommodation options and taken a ‘secret’ tour of Al-Hilal.
The Saudi plan is to announce as soon as possible to stop any late twist. But all that’s lacking is a Messi signature, and we now must see if he’s willing to give it.
Barcelona are going to struggle to put together an acceptable offer. It’s complicated. LaLiga do expect to give Barcelona their squad-cost limit and ‘approve’ their two-year financial plan within the next few days. But this shouldn’t be seen as ‘greenlighting’ Messi’s arrival.
The two-year plan is really just reviewed by LaLiga and providing there is nothing entirely unrealistic in it then Barcelona must sign to confirm they will stick to it.
The squad-cost limit is the real issue. I understand that Barcelona will again be over the squad-cost limit by close to €200m. This means they will be restricted to only spending 40% of income received. This can be taken from things like outgoings or reduced player wages.
This presents a challenge signing Messi, even on a free. The good news is with the squad-cost limit number, Barca can make a formal offer at least knowing accurate numbers. It’s what they’ve been waiting for. But they won’t proceed unless they first know it’s all acceptable to Messi.
The other complication is even if Messi agrees to a package that works financially for the club, Barcelona can’t just wrap up the deal. Whatever is agreed must still be run by a panel of independent experts to ensure there is no financial manipulation. This is also why Messi can’t just play for free for the club even if he was willing.
The panel, which will include lawyers and economists, considers 105 guidelines. They’ll factor in previous contracts and things like Messi’s age. They’ll then provide a minimum number to Barcelona. This can only begin once an offer is both made, and as I understand it, accepted.
Once Barca have the squad-cost limit it’s up to them if they can make the numbers work, get Messi to agree to a wage and be in line with the experts recommendation for that. Barca will be restricted because they will definitely be over the squad-cost limit. But the rule is not LaLiga ‘punishing’ Barca. It’s there to protect the club.
Messi would love to return, but there is still huge work to be done to somehow pull it off. Right now the only hope Barcelona have is Messi waits, and to do that he has to be positive something is financially feasible.
Liverpool moving fast to secure Mac Allister, more midfielders could follow, but not Caicedo
Liverpool are doing what they always do: moving fast, under the radar and smartly. They are constantly window planning.
And much like in January when they announced Cody Gakpo from PSV, they are intent on doing business early this summer.
The club are optimistic Alexis Mac Allister will join from Brighton. There was a key meeting on Monday and a medical is imminent. The expectation is the deal will be completed this week if all goes to plan. And I am told the fee is actually just under £45m. This might seem low given Mac Allister is valued at £60m+ right now. But his new deal was signed before the World Cup and the number baked into the contract will give Liverpool a fantastic deal.
You may remember back in January I reported how suitors felt Mac Allister, prior to the World Cup, was worth around (and even in some cases under) £30m. So maybe back then Brighton felt the number they would be prepared to sell for was still exceptional. But Mac Allister has had such a brilliant season that Liverpool are on course for a bargain.
It won’t be the same with Moises Caicedo. There is no release clause with a specific number, but there is a means within his new deal to facilitate a move and ensure Caicedo can leave this summer.
Liverpool are not in the race for Caicedo, nor are they currently one of the clubs considering a move for Youri Tielemans, despite being repeatedly linked with both players. For Caicedo, Chelsea are the ones to watch and now they have missed out on Manuel Ugarte, they will definitely escalate that chase. Caicedo has always been on Chelsea’s summer list.
Brighton haven’t quoted a specific price but it’s understood they will hold out for a minimum guaranteed fee of £70m plus at least £10m in add ons.
Arsenal are also considering Caicedo again and keep an eye on Newcastle as well, who want a central midfielder along with a more creative-minded one like Leicester’s James Maddison.
Liverpool are considering other midfielders and have discussed both Borussia Monchengladbach’s Manu Kone or Nice’s Khephren Thuram. Kone might be available at under £35m.
Chelsea remain content with Enzo Fernandez investment despite poor start in England
As reported last week, Graham Potter did feel the fee Chelsea paid for Enzo Fernandez was massive, but he still wanted the player. He just didn’t think it was possible, and nor did Chelsea’s owners for large parts of the January window. The deal only got done with four minutes to spare, and those close to it believe had Benfica not been beating Arouca on Deadline Day, Rui Costa might have pulled the plug.
Everyone at Chelsea was obsessed with Enzo, especially Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali, who were intent on landing the then Benfica midfielder after seeing him at the World Cup.
It was obvious the fee required to land Enzo was high – over double his market value. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t smart business. It was a calculated decision to pay a British-transfer record fee of £105m (€121m), offering £860k (€1m) above the release clause ((€121m) to get more preferable payment terms.
Fixating on the fee alone mispresents the deal. Chelsea view the transfer fee as an investment not an expense and believe that Enzo will grow into his price tag. He probably already has gone up in value, even in a poor season for Chelsea. The Argentine has taken to the Premier League quickly and will form a crucial part of Mauricio Pochettino’s plans.
Potter didn’t have doubts about the quality Chelsea were bringing in during the January window, only the volume. He was in a tough position because Chelsea’s recruitment team were happy to plan long term, but Potter needed short-term results and to do that a manageable squad size was essential.
I think it’s important to understand that in Chelsea’s recruitment model, led by Laurence Stewart and Paul Winstanley, decisions are taken by numbers. The most important thing is a freedom to challenge within the dynamic. If there wasn’t disagreement and healthy debate it would be more alarming. So it’s normal for different opinions on players, including from the manager.
But the manager, just like anyone else, doesn’t have autonomy in this type of model despite being a key voice. So when it’s suggested Pochettino (who doesn’t even officially start until July 1) was the one aggressively pushing for Sporting’s Manuel Ugarte, it’s not strictly accurate. The manager will always have a say, but Ugarte (even though Chelsea pulled out over the weekend, and he has subsequently joined PSG) was a long-term target pre-dating Pochettino. If clubs just let their manager, especially a new one, just pick all the targets then they would undermine their strategy and window-planning and risk constantly having to change approaches.
Real Madrid are not necessarily favourites for Harry Kane
I don’t think there is a ‘favourite’ for Harry Kane because right now Daniel Levy doesn’t want to sell. However, Real Madrid considering Kane is an intriguing twist. And with Karim Benzema’s exit to Al-Ittihad, finding a goal scorer is now a big priority for Real.
We have had Kane to Bayern links before, but a move to Germany is not of interest to the England striker so there was nothing much in them. Yet Real is interesting because Levy would have the chance to do business with a non-English club and thus bypass selling him to a domestic rival.
Real’s interest is genuine, but Levy is going to be stubborn. There is a very real chance he keeps Kane for another season and lets the contract run down in the hope that, should things improve under incoming Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou, then a new agreement can eventually be reached.
Spurs were optimistic Kane would extend late last year, and although the situation has changed, and the project moved backwards, Spurs are still calm about the situation.
Levy showed when Manchester City came calling in summer 2021 that he is quite prepared to price his star asset out the market. He asked for £200m to even start a conversation back then.
As previously reported, it’s going to take £100m+ to stand a chance with Kane now. Manchester United have purposefully gone to the player side to see what is feasible and understand if Kane will help any transfer, should stumbling blocks be hit, by insisting on the move. Manchester United simply don’t want their time wasted which is why they have moved early. There remains low optimism anything will be possible despite him being a top target.
Kane to Real might sit easier with Levy. And he has already sold both Gareth Bale and Luka Modric to Florentino Perez. Real are also looking at Chelsea forward Kai Havertz, too, whilst Bobby Firmino is a budget option as well who is a available on a free transfer after leaving Liverpool.
Remember, Real are set to pay a big transfer fee for Jude Bellingham so the prospect of adding Kane could present financial considerations. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if come the end of the window Kane is still a Spurs player as he looks to edge ever closer to Alan Shearer’s Premier League goal scoring record (260). This is important to him. Kane is currently on 213 goals after scoring 30 last season.