No regrets for Liverpool after choosing Darwin Nunez over Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea is done, it’s been pre-agreed for the summer. The reason RB Leipzig haven’t announced it yet is because the player is injured until February, and in addition to that clubs with players outgoing, especially when they’re in the Champions League, don’t necessarily want to announce it too early as it’s a distraction for them, so they prefer to dismiss the notion of a done deal as a rumour.
Chelsea’s tactic, very wisely, has been to move early in order to stop other suitors coming in, and to bid slightly above the release clause to get a more preferable payment structure, and by bidding slightly above that clause they’ve agreed a financial package with Leipzig. Usually with a release clause, the number is above market value to ward off suitors, and although if a club triggers it, the club can do nothing, it is seen as exceptional business for the seller because it’s a big number paid all in one lump sum.
Nkunku was different – he’d signed a new contract with Leipzig, which is a strange thing to do when you’re planning to move away. But he negotiated a better wage and it gave him that leverage to negotiate a better package for himself with Chelsea. Leipzig also established the clause at slightly below Nkunku’s market value, because it was a figure they felt was reasonable and it would help set off a summer transfer. So, Chelsea saw that, they knew it was not especially high, and so paying slightly above didn’t feel extortionate to Chelsea. They feel like they’re getting a decent deal, Leipzig get slightly above the release clause and it’s all been done quickly and cleanly, and in many ways everybody wins.
Nkunku will join Chelsea over the summer and he’ll give them exactly what they need – goals and creativity. He’s scored 12 goals in just 15 Bundesliga games this season, he scored 20 in the Bundesliga last season in 34 appearances, and since 2021/22, he’s been on fire domestically. It’s a shame he’s injured at the moment but Chelsea are across that and they know it’s not particularly serious and won’t impact the transfer in any way, shape, or form.
The reason I think Liverpool didn’t move for Nkunku is just because they are always keen to explore multiple targets, and Nkunku was one of them, but they moved for Darwin Nunez, and they’re still very confident in that deal. Although they’re not identical players, Liverpool are very discerning about who they buy – it’s very easy to see a great player and wonder why he’s not at your club, but Liverpool decided that Darwin Nunez was going to be their big outlay, they beat Manchester United to him and now they’re hoping that a fairly rough-edge player who’s been a bit hit and miss in front of goal so far, will start to become more prolific. I don’t think Liverpool will rue not signing Nkunku, we’ll still have to see how he adapts to English football.
What we do know about Nkunku is he’s been very prolific in front of goal since the start of last season, and when you look at the likes of Kai Havertz, Christian Pulisic, Raheem Sterling, none of them have been particularly clinical for Chelsea at this stage. They’ve all got high potential, but that lack of confidence and consistency will maybe convince Chelsea that Nkunku, and Joao Felix in the second half of this season, can chip in with both goals and assists.
The arrival of Nkunku and the impact on Romelu Lukaku is not necessarily that significant. Lukaku’s situation is that he wants to stay at Inter, and the complications are at Inter’s end, because he’s been injured and hasn’t made the impact Inter were hoping for. Under the original deal, which was a season-long loan, there was a verbal agreement that a second-year loan would be established, because at that point all parties wanted longevity, and Inter were not prepared to pay the kind of transfer fee for a permanent deal that Chelsea wanted. Originally, Chelsea tried to go down another route with player swap deals to make up for the big money they paid for him. Players like Milan Skriniar, Denzel Dumfries, and even Lautaro Martinez were discussed, but there was no desire from Inter to trade anybody, they were able to use the leverage of the fact that Lukaku wanted out of Chelsea and to go back to Inter. So because of that player desire and the urgency of the new Chelsea owners to resolve the situation, Inter were able to get a deal on their terms. Now I think it’s a case of Lukaku getting fit and scoring again to persuade Inter that they would like to proceed with an extension of Lukaku’s stay. Then we’ll see at the end of that if there’s an obligation to buy added. For Chelsea, I don’t think they’re planning for Lukaku to be part of their future. That’s not because they don’t respect him, it’s just because the player is very set on staying at Inter beyond this season.
With players like Nkunku and Felix, I think the impact will be more on players like Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech, who are very much available on the market. Ziyech has very high wages, which is putting off a lot of clubs – Newcastle United, for example, didn’t want to pay Ziyech’s wages because they didn’t want to break their wage structure too significantly, while they have Financial Fair Play concerns as well. Unless they qualify for the Champions League and can change their budget, they have to be careful, and Eddie Howe is very keen as well to keep unity, and the way to do that is not to, half way through the season, bring in a new player on sky-high wages, which could potentially unsettle the rest of the squad. Ziyech would love to return to Ajax, but it’s not looking likely. Milan were interested in the summer but their interest has cooled at the moment. Ziyech’s an interesting one, because he had a superb World Cup, getting to the semi-finals with Morocco and showing he can add goals, creativity, leadership, and even defensive qualities. So it wouldn’t surprise me if Graham Potter maybe tries to give Ziyech a bit more of a consistent run in the team. With Nkunku and Felix, the players who’ll be impacted could be Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Kai Havertz, who Chelsea don’t want to let go, but there’s a question about how they use both Felix and Havertz – do they just play one of them? If it’s not going to be Felix, that’s a lot of money to spend on a loan. Or will Potter play both of them? There will be selection headaches as it is, so I don’t expect Lukaku to be part of that thinking.
What’s the truth behind those Kylian Mbappe stories from earlier this season?
Kylian Mbappe draws a lot of media attention, and so every story I think has to be taken with a pinch of salt to some extent. We were told a few months back, for example, that he was asking to leave immediately, and wanted to quit PSG in the January transfer window, which was nonsense. PSG will not sell Mbappe in January, they have said for months that they would not let him go in January.
It’s important to note that when PSG tied Mbappe down to a new deal, it was not just to keep him for the long term, it was also to protect the sell-on value, so there was never a possibility of them losing him on a free transfer. When he renewed, it was at the back of their mind that if he goes sooner rather than later, regardless of what the contract extension says, they’ve protected the value. They either win because they get to keep the player, or because they get the transfer fee they’re looking for. PSG are very flexible in that respect – if in the summer the right offer emerges and he wants to leave, they’ll ensure his price is met and they’ll allow him to be sold. But that’s not the thinking at the moment, Mbappe is happy and settled in Paris. The same for Lionel Messi, even though they were against each other in the World Cup final, they’re very much pulling in the same direction at PSG, and even Neymar has had a great season too. So it’s ironic that we were told last summer that Neymar wanted out immediately, we were told Mbappe regretted signing a new deal with PSG, we were told that Messi was headed for the MLS, when in actual fact he’s now very likely to extend his contract, and Neymar and Mbappe are both settled and performing very well. PSG have everything in place on the footballing side to focus on winning the Champions League, so I think it’s premature to speculate that Mbappe is thinking about his next move; much like Messi and Neymar, he wants to win the Champions League with PSG after a range of near-misses.
As for Mbappe’s contract, it doesn’t make him de-facto manager or give him any undue say or control over the club. The control is around concessions within his contract to give the Mbappe brand the highest possible ability to earn. Mbappe sees himself as a brand in the same way that Messi and Ronaldo are, and sometimes there can be conflicts – you might do a personal deal that has a conflict of interest with the club, so you might want more personal freedom and flexibility to do more media, photoshoots, and bringing in more revenue. There’s full flexibility there for Mbappe to use his image rights to do commercial deals, and that can reward both Mbappe and PSG.
Of course, his opinion holds weight and it’s not unusual for a player of that calibre to have a say in and discuss the direction of a project that’s being built around him. But there’s nothing in the contract, as I understand it, that would give him the final say over a transfer or a manager, but there’s everything in the contract that allows him to earn on the side and maximise his own brand. We know very well that the younger generation of fans follow players as well as a team – Cristiano Ronaldo, as we know, recently joined Al Nassr, and it immediately meant their social media following doubling, tripling, quadrupling because of Ronaldo. That’s the power players have got now, and clubs realise they can make money off a player rather than the team brand. A club would traditionally think about their brand because it’s something stable you can control and build on. With a player, depending on where they’re from, who their fans are, this can open you up to new audiences, which in turn brings revenue. Traditionally, even if a player contributed to that, they wouldn’t necessarily get a slice of the pie. There’s more of a balance now, and I think PSG are trying to balance the two and maximise the potential of both of them, so that means PSG might have to concede a little to their players, because the players are aware of their power, and they can leave at any moment, affecting the value of the club.
The owners of PSG, QSI, now that the World Cup is over, have got a highly ambitious 2023. PSG remain their flagship club, but they also want to invest in other clubs in Europe, in South America, and they want to do this relatively fast in 2023. One of the clubs they’re interested in, as I exclusively revealed a few days ago, could be Tottenham. Nasser Al-Khelaifi, on behalf of QSI, rather than PSG, has spoken with Daniel Levy. I must add that that Tottenham deny those talks took place.
Still, QSI looking to expand their multi-club model will affect PSG and therefore play into the Mbappe situation as well. If PSG and QSI get bigger and more global, there will be more opportunities and incentives for Mbappe to maximise his own brand commercially. PSG are also likely to sell a stake of the club later in 2023 to one of a few consortiums who are currently in advanced talks. This is not QSI stepping back from PSG, it’s about finding strategic partners to generate funding, and it can help them modernise the entire football club. Mbappe, Messi and Neymar will all be part of the appeal to potential partners, this helps their value, so they will want to use the Mbappe brand, and he can use the QSI ambition. So he needs to decide, does he want to stay with PSG in the long run and make the most of his earning possibilities and control? (He’s certainly not as unhappy as some reports have made out.) Or does he want to move to Real Madrid? As I’ve said before, though, Real Madrid can’t afford Mbappe and Bellingham, so decisions will have to be made. PSG are quite content with the situation – if they keep him, that’s part of their plan, but if they lose him, they’re going to get the fee they were looking for.